A mere eight weeks ago that the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if his performances were a sign or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. After Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win any of their first six games, are somehow only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
This is a rather hard proposition to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, while the wins have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have just won ten consecutive victories, they appear curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their star man to save the day with some clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened versus United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents had more shots and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction may well be the greatest opponent the club must confront in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
